Renowned Political analyst, Jide Ojo, has declared that, unless faced with serious health issues or death, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is likely to be re-elected in 2027.
He described President Tinubu as a master strategist whose decision to adopt a Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023 was based on clear political calculations and opinion polls.
Speaking in an exclusive interview with Naija News correspondent, Ojo said, “The only thing that can stop Bola Ahmed Tinubu from being re-elected in 2027 is death or serious health issues.
“Politically, he is expected to win because of his strategic approach, control over party structures, and ability to respond effectively to opposition threats.”
How Tinubu Secured Victory In 2023
According to the political analyst, Tinubu, a former Governor of Lagos State, knew former President Muhammadu Buhari underperformed on the economy and security in his eight years in office, but understands that a same-faith ticket would appeal to “the bulk of Muslim voters, especially in the North,” while also attracting Christian minorities in the North-Central region.
“Tinubu is a smart politician who uses surveys and opinion polls to guide his decisions,” Ojo noted.
“He understands the importance of appealing to different groups emotionally and balances his ticket to maximise votes.”
Carrot And Stick Politics
According to Ojo, Tinubu adopts a carrot-and-stick approach in managing alliances. He often keeps potential rivals close by offering them positions or power-sharing arrangements to prevent them from joining the opposition.
“The man has been a smart politician all his life. He knows politics more than he knows accounting. And that’s what people have not understood about his person. He is a man who knows how to wield a carrot and a stick.
“He waits to see what the opposition brings to the table before making final decisions on his running mate or other strategic moves,” Ojo explained.
The political analyst added, “In 2023, Tinubu wasn’t relying on using his financial war chest to win elections. He knows what can appeal to the emotions of different groups. And he knew. See, let me tell you something that you possibly don’t know about Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He is a man who believes in surveys. But his own surveys are not published in the media.
“He will hire the best agency to conduct an opinion survey in a very discreet manner and open up ideas of what people are thinking. He will fly a chart and see how people will react.
“You know in 2023, he knows the only pathway to victory is to go the Muslim Muslim ticket because you know Buhari hasn’t done well on the economy and security, so he will not in good conscience say he will continue the legacy of Buhari and at the same time he doesn’t want to sever or put Buhari under bus.
“And he knows that if he doesn’t pick a Northern Muslim, the bulk of the Muslim north vote will not come to him because Peter Obi is already getting the Christian minorities in the north central.
“He must have got the ideas from some opinion polls. He must have seen that Atiku Abubakar who appealed to Northern Muslims as one of them, and he knew that the pathway is, if he is able to break that track.
“What he did basically was he looked at the figures. If he does this, if he did Muslim-Muslim, what will he lose? What will he gain? Will he lose or will he gain more? And in any event, what he actually needed was not an outright win in every state. He needs just 25% of the votes in each of those states.”
Regional And Religious Balance – ‘A Means To An End’
When asked about the role of regional and religious balance in Tinubu’s political decisions, Ojo said such considerations are “important but ultimately a means to an end-winning elections.”
“Speculation about Christian-Muslim or Muslim-Muslim tickets is secondary. The main focus is on who brings value to the ticket and can help secure votes. Tinubu appoints people who add value to his government and maintains a balance that appeals to groups without being destructive,” he added.
Strategic Appointments and Reforms
Ojo highlighted Tinubu’s strategic choice of a young, Christian, northern APC National Chairman, Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda, from the North Central region, which he said was aimed at countering criticism of the Muslim-Muslim ticket and boosting APC’s electoral chances in the area.
Recall that Yilwatda, a former Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management, and Social Development, was recently appointed as the National Chairman of the ruling party following the resignation of the former Governor of Kano State, Abdullahi Ganduje.
He also said Tinubu’s governance plan is structured: “The first two years are for economic, agricultural, and health reforms. The last two years will focus on infrastructure, bailouts, and conditional cash transfers to the grassroots to secure voter support before the election.”
Monitoring Opposition Weaknesses
The analyst stated that Tinubu keeps a close watch on the strength and unity of opposition parties, such as the PDP and ADC.
“The lack of defections to the opposition and confusion within opposition parties has boosted Tinubu’s confidence. He uses this information to position the APC and decide whether to adjust his alliances,” Ojo noted.
He cited examples, including the use of opinion polls to select the 2023 ticket, the removal of Ganduje as APC chairman to avoid electoral backlash, and Tinubu’s role in forming the APC and installing Buhari in 2015.
Economic Hardship, Modest Gains
On governance, Ojo admitted that Nigerians have suffered due to the increased cost of living under Tinubu.
However, he pointed to progress, including improved electricity supply, free dialysis in federal hospitals, and reforms in health and agriculture.
“People have adjusted to the changes, and the government is seen as making progress despite challenges,” he said.
Looking ahead, Ojo predicted that Tinubu’s chances of winning in 2027 remain strong.
Meanwhile, the Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum (NENF), amid the political gearing up for the 2027 general election, cautioned President Bola Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) against repeating the Muslim-Muslim ticket, insisting that inclusivity is vital for Nigeria’s stability and unity.
The group made the call in a statement on Tuesday, signed by its leader, Dominic Alancha, in which it argued that a balanced presidential ticket would strengthen national cohesion and electoral viability.
Naija News recalls that Tinubu, as the APC’s candidate in 2023, chose former Borno State governor Kashim Shettima as his running mate despite nationwide criticism.
Both men went on to win the poll, but not without backlash. The NENF said the choice fuelled religious tension and alienated millions of northern Christians.
There Is A Need For National Cohesion -NENF
“The Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum, representing the marginalised ethnic nationalities of Northern Nigeria, issues a clarion call to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the APC to abandon plans for a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket in 2027. Our demand is rooted in the urgent need for national cohesion, electoral viability, and justice for Nigeria’s diverse religious and ethnic communities,” the group said.
It noted that over 80 per cent of northern Christians rejected APC in 2023, costing the party Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa and the FCT, while several Christian politicians defected in protest.
‘APC Risks Losing Middle Belt States’
The forum also warned that repeating the same Muslim-Muslim strategy in 2027 could prove costly for the ruling party.
“A repeat of the Muslim-Muslim ticket could see the APC lose Middle Belt states, where northern Christians command about 90 per cent of the votes,” the group added.
It further noted that even some Muslim groups had cautioned against retaining the same ticket, stressing that Peter Obi’s sweeping victories in Christian-dominated areas in 2023 were proof that exclusionary politics fuel opposition.
According to the statement, a possible Obi–Atiku alliance could dismantle APC’s support base if Tinubu ignores the warning.
While acknowledging Shettima’s competence, the NENF maintained that he cannot address the grievances triggered by the 2023 pairing.
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